HomeMy WebLinkAboutNC Sales Tax Update Attachment (Finance) (2)Q3 2012
National City Sales Tax Update
Statewide Results
Gains in all seven of HdL's key eco-
nomic groupings confirm that Cali-
fornia's economy continues to mend.
Statewide local sales and use tax rev-
enues from transactions occurringJuly
through September 2012 were 6.0%
higher than the same quarter in 2011
after onetime accounting and report-
ing aberrations are factored out.
The continued strong demand for new
autos exceeded analysts' expectations
and generated about one-fourth of
the adjusted statewide increase. Res-
taurant sales posted another strong
quarter with receipts 6.6% higher than
the same period one year ago. Use tax
from the development of solar ener-
gy projects and a modest recovery in
some categories of building and con-
struction materials also contributed to
the rise.
Overall sales growth was tempered by
a leveling in fuel prices compared to
the previous year's quartet and by a
slowdown in business spending in the
Silicon Valley.
The Year Ahead
Gains in sales and use tax receipts from
the first half of 2013 are expected to
be lower than previous quarters. Re-
covery from "fiscal cliff" uncertainties
and its final outcome may take several
months while Europe's financial woes
and China's sluggish growth will tem-
per California export activity. Fuel
prices should stabilize and not gener-
ate the huge bubbles in tax revenues
experienced in previous quarters.
The last half of the year is predicted to
resume steady, moderate growth. In
November, the state's unemployment
rate had already dipped to 9.8 percent,
the lowest since the recession began.
The recent gains are becoming more
widespread among job categories and
even include an increase in construc-
tion -related employment
The state's housing market is strength-
ening with fewer distressed transac-
tions and record low inventories. The
median sales price of homes has in-
creased for the last eight consecutive
months of the year and building ac-
tivity, partici-daily in the coastal areas,
is expected to pick up steam in 2013.
Elevated foreclosure rates in some in-
land regions may delay building recov-
ery for another year or two.
Pent-up demand, record low inter-
est rates and easing credit availability
have led to robust sales of new auto-
mobiles. That demand is expected to
continue for another few quarters as
consumers replace older, less fuel ef-
ficient models and take advantage of
lease and financing incentives being
offered by manufacturers.
Wage gains from new hiring, combined
with lower fuel prices and an improv-
ing housing market are incrementally
boosting consumer confidence but
much depends on government stew-
ardship of the recovery. Tax increases
and reduced benefits could shrink
spending at the lowet income levels
while overly deep cutbacks in gov-
ernment contracts and infrastructure
improvements could discourage new
business investment.
SALES PER CAPITA
S4,00o
$2,000
03
09
Q3
10
03
11
as
12
National City County California
NATIONAL CITY TOP 15 BUSINESS TYPES
Business Type
Auto Lease
Department Stores
Discount Dept Stores
Electronics/Appliance Stores
Family Apparel
Heavy Industrial
Lumber/Building Matenats
New Motor Vehicle Dealers
Restaurants Liquor
Restaurants No Alcohol
Service Stations
Shoe Stores
Speaatty Stores
Used Automotive Dealers
Women's Apparel
Total AD Accounts
County & State Pool Allocation
Gross Receipts
National City County Hdl. State
Q3'12` Change Change Change
46.9 19.8% 10.9% 10.7%
143.4 20.0% -2.1% -0.9%
220.9 3.7% 13.3% 15,5%
59.6 11.8% 0,5% -1.1%
172.3 0.0% 6.5% 9.9%
49.0 -23,3% -26.1% 7.0%
46.4 -17.4% 43.8% 35.8%
1,130.7 29.3% 19A% 19.1%
47.9 6.2% 11.6% 8.6%
239.6 3.7% 8.8% 8.1%
221.7 -0.9% -0.6% 1.6%
57.2 7.7% 3.6% 9.3%
69.2 2.2% 1.7% 0.9%
87.3 3.8% 15.9% 11.7%
77.2 -3.2% 3.4% 7.4%
S3,236.7 22.3% 7.6% 8.8%
351.0 17.6%
$3,587,7 21.9% 'In thousands